Roberto Carballes Baena vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Second Serve Efficiency: In the last six months, Baena's second serve point win rate is 44.95%, while Carabelli's is marginally better at 45.36%. Despite the slight difference, can Carabelli's slight edge translate into a match-winning advantage?
• Return Game Strength: Recently, Baena has excelled in return games, winning 52.3% of opponent's second serve points, outperforming Carabelli who has managed 47.12%. This gives Baena a slight edge in breaking his opponent's serve. When it comes to first serve returns, Carabelli leads with 28.68% compared to Baena's 27.73%. How significant is this in determining the match favorite?
• Saving Breakpoints: Baena has saved 56.67% of breakpoints, conversely Carabelli has saved 54.33%. This indicates that Baena may handle pressure situations slightly better than Carabelli.
• Overall Yearly Performance: Over the past year, Baena has a win rate of 48.08% (25/27), compared to Carabelli's more impressive 63.75% (51/29). With better overall form, does Carabelli hold an upper hand?
• Surface Suitability: Both players thrive on clay, with Baena winning 62% of his matches on this surface, while Carabelli is slightly better with a 65% win rate. Neither fares well on grass, with Carabelli yet to win a match.
• Competition Level: Baena competes mainly in the Main tour with a win rate of 38.46% (10/16), while Carabelli has excelled in Challenger and ITF tournaments, boasting a 79.49% win rate (31/8). Does this indicate a higher match toughness for Baena?
• Head-to-Head Record: Baena and Carabelli have faced each other once, with Baena taking the victory. Does past success tilt the scales in Baena's favor?
• Opponent Quality: Baena has encountered stronger competition, with opponents averaging a rank of 138.73, compared to Carabelli's opponents averaging 165.59 in rank.
• Deciding Set Statistics: Baena wins 47% of deciding sets, while Carabelli outperforms with 75%. Could a deciding set favor Carabelli?
• Breakpoint Conversion: Baena has a marginal advantage, converting 35.54% of breakpoints, slightly outdoing Carabelli's 33.92%. Will this impact the match outcome?

Editorial Prediction (July 28, 2025, UTC):

Both players bring notable strengths into this upcoming clay court match, with Baena excelling in returning second serves and Carabelli's impressive recent overall performance. Both players' win rates on clay are strong, indicating a level playing field in terms of surface preference.

While Carabelli's overall form in the past year is stronger, Baena's experience against tougher opponents and ability to handle pressure, notably saving breakpoints efficiently, may play a critical role.

Their head-to-head history favors Baena, with a previous victory against Carabelli, suggesting he can leverage this mental edge. However, Carabelli's high success rate in deciding sets showcases his grit and tenacity in closely contested matches.

Considering the current stats and historical context, Baena's competitive experience at higher tournament levels combined with his returning prowess and past head-to-head win slightly tips the scale in his favor. Thus, Roberto Carballes Baena is the likely winner in this upcoming contest.